How to tell when a lead is safe

I really enjoyed this admittedly geeky article on 'How to Tell When a Baseketball Lead is Safe'. Warning, math geekery is involved.
And since I'm mentioning basketball, let me say that I have no advice for picking games for a pool. Well, once bit of advice...get involved in a basketball pool! The NCAA tournament is one of the top events of the sports calendar.
Especially the first weekend of games, which starts tomorrow morning. Each spring the selection committee picks the teams and seeds them as well as they can. Each year there are huge upsets and games that are much closer than the seeding suggests they should be. And each and every game has the drama that only comes from a 'one and done' format.
The Gophers play tomorrow at 6ish, so be certain to tune in and cheer them on if nothing else.

(Oh, and I picked Pitt to win in my office pool, so you can cheer for them, too.)