This is the high point of the sports calendar. I thought I'd share some thoughts from a casual college basketball fan. I don't follow basketball throughout the year. A few Gophers games, but that's about it. I couldn't tell you if the rankings throughout the year are fair or not. But following sports for many years teaches you some things about how the sports world works.
1) The 'storylines to watch' rarely work the way we think they will. If you're hearing about a potential matchup of teams that have a history, it probably won't happen. Duke and NC as a final four game this year is the one that jumped out at me. The greatest rivalry in this sport playing for a spot in the championship game? Great story, but unlikely.
2) Trying to pick the big upset is satisfying, but costly. For instance, every year a 12 seed beats a 5 seed. Picking that right gets you an early point. Pick it wrong and miss the upset that actually does happen and you lose two early points.
3) This is a theory of mine that I'm testing this year. As more and more information is available about distant college teams, being able to seed them 'correctly' becomes more likely. This is pretty straightforward market theory, but I haven't seen this theory anywhere else. As a result, I'm picking many fewer upsets this year.
My picks for the final four? Illinois, North Carolina, Kentucky and Wake Forest. North Carolina to win it all.
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