Friday, February 17, 2012

How to Win 'Survivor'

An outstanding article here, outlining ten strategies to remember while playing 'Survivor'. Some of this mirrors my understanding as well. The FP Gal can confirm that I talk about some of these constantly. The one that bugs me most is #4 on the list:
Tolerate risk appropriately. (The Rule Of Gregg With Three G's.) One of the best strategic moves in Survivor history happened during the Palau season (the show's tenth), when the powerful pair of Ian and Tom realized that a plan had been set in motion from within their alliance for their buddy Gregg to double-cross them. Without getting into the fine points, which involve math, they had to try a risky strategy that still left them a significant chance of being burned, but that was better than waiting around like gazelles on the savanna. They carried it out, and it worked.

But what they did that Survivor contestants often don't was this: they correctly counted the risk of doing nothing. Very often, if people see the reality-show equivalent of a truck coming and they have a choice of standing still in the road or jumping into a ditch that might or might not contain poisonous snakes, they stand in the road and hope the truck swerves, because it sometimes does, and because who is going to jump into a potential pit of poisonous snakes? But if the chances that the truck will swerve are lower than the prevalence of snakes, you must jump, even though people tend to overestimate the risk of acting and underestimate the risk of not acting. Sometimes, a move is required.

Yes, for Probst's sake, yes! Don't be afraid to make a move!

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